Greg,
Thanks for reaching out. Yes, I am aware that some of the residents have questions and concerns about the potential tax rate for Apache Shores should the area join the District. We have seen some of what has been posted on FB and I think there have been some misunderstandings concerning the status.
Despite what some may have put out to the community the District has never published any final numbers about any of this. We have put out estimates based on the information available at that time. Final numbers will not be available until the petition is completed (or we all decide it is not likely to be completed). Once that is determined the Board will instruct our Engineers to produce the final Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) for Apache Shores. That will provide all of the final pricing for all of the construction work. Once that is complete the Board will instruct the District’s tax analyst to produce a tax plan for the area that takes the CIP into account. When this is completed it will provide the data that will be in the ballot language that everyone will vote on.
I recognize that everyone wants the final numbers asap so they can make a good decision but I do have to ask everyone to understand that the District can’t possible provide this now. There are just too many moving pieces here to produce a final number for people when the date that this may all happen is completely undetermined. Final numbers will come once we have a timeline that is definite, otherwise with all of these moving parts (total bond amount, Assessed Value in Apache, Interest Rate, timeline for bond sales, reducing the contingency to 10% etc) the potential bond amount and associated tax can skew significantly.
This issue is exactly what seems to be causing the confusion online as people are attempting to estimate the necessary tax rate but are all using differing inputs. The tax rate was designed two years ago as an estimate for the community to understand how this process could work. It was accurate given the information available at the time. It was set up to build out over time, meaning it started at 31 cents and built to 40 cents over the first three years. This allowed enough additional Assessed Value (AV) to develop (meaning existing homes that got rehabbed and new homes being built) so that the tax rate would stabilize at 40 cents. Beyond 2030 (once stable) no further development was assumed by the analyst to ensure their projections were conservative.
This was based on the typical AV growth rates and land development rates they see and was only modeled until 2030 because at that point the tax rate would have been stable at $.40. No further increases were assumed although historically the area is likely to see somewhere between 3-5% of continued AV growth just from land valuation increase. This was left out to be conservative but had it been included it would have resulted in a falling tax rate year over year as the AV increases. This can be most easily seen by examining the Steiner Ranch Tax Rate over time (attached for your reference) (image below). All of this was based on the 2023 taxable AV provided by TCAD.
Concerning the Tax rate and AV, there are two factors at play here that have caused people online to be concerned that the District’s analysis needs to be adjusted.
There were significant tax protests in 2024/2025 that have lowered the AV in Apache Shores by nearly $40MM.
From 2024 to now, the typical AV increase from development has not occurred in Apache Shores at the same rate it has throughout the remainder of our District. When the analysis was put together in 2024 there were 1,019 parcels in AS with a taxable AV less than $300,000 (average was $149,171). The tax rate analyst assumed a rate of development on these lots that would have raised AV to the point where the tax rate would have been stable over the life of the bond. These predicted increases did not materialize at the rate anticipated in Apache Shores.
Obviously neither of these two factors were anticipated and we now have the analyst reworking their numbers with a more conservative approach to additional assessed value being added to the area. That being said, I do want to be sure that everyone understands that as we have been discussing from the onset, it will be impossible for the District to provide a final tax rate until the petition is completed and accepted by our Board. That is why the tax rate and specifically the total bond amount are what Apache will be voting on (assuming the petition is completed). Between the 30% engineer’s contingency and the anticipated savings from coordinating with the County on reducing the costs for road restoration, we feel confident that the final tax rate will be at or near the 40 cent rate that has been discussed.
This does not include the possibility of getting low interest loans or grants through the Water Development Board which is something we will pursue each year and will only bring the total bond and tax rate down further. The final numbers will be published in the election Ballot announcement but will also be published by WCID 17 to the residents of Apache Shores directly so they can decide if this is something they want to support.
This is precisely why we want everyone to understand, that the petition is exactly that – a petition. The final numbers will be voted on by the Apache Shores residents and that is when people will be making the actual decision to approve the bond amount and a tax rate or not.
I realize this is a lot of information and we may want to make this a specific topic of conversation at the next town hall. That way people can hear from us how this process works and get whatever questions they may have answered.
Thanks,
Jason
